Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Mccain the Maverick Drills for Oil

The thing I love most about human nature is also what I hate most about human nature. It’s predictability. Once you realize that we are all inherently the same, you realize that the person across from you has a pretty good chance of reacting to a situation the same way that you will.

There are other factors involved of course. Is the person across from you the type that cried or laughed when Bambi’s mom died? Their reaction to that will dictate (most likely) what side of the animal rights movement they will be on.

Simpler: Does the person across from you get better in a stressful situation, or fold? With that knowledge you can predict if they flinch or stand firm if you suddenly decide to charge at them with your fists cocked.

So after a while, it only takes getting to know a little bit about a person, and you can predict behavior with astonishing accuracy. You predict what type of personality group they fit into.

With the knowledge that every human being is essentially the same it also gets easier to predict the actions of a group as a whole; meaning society in America. Human beings are pretty good at pointing fingers. They are very good about telling the people around them what is best for them, what they should be doing, but very rarely do any of us follow our own advice. Dieting, child rearing, early to bed, early to rise; drilling for oil in Alaska.

Alaska.

It is because of the basic human practice of “Do what I say, not as I do” that I predict the Democrats latest strategy of calling out McCain on his demand to start drilling for oil on American soil will fail. Because we as a nation, as individuals are fine with going green as long as we do not have to sacrifice too much. We are also becoming acutely aware that these initiatives the government is presenting to fix our dependence on foreign oil, are not going to come into play anytime soon. 2032 is a long time away. My pocket is empty now. My children are hungry now, or for some, my Hummer is about to become my full time home because I cannot afford to put gas in it AND pay my mortgage, and I prefer not to sacrifice my wants for me needs.

Human nature.

To be sure there are still the hard-core environmentalists, who will never give ground, but I think the popularity and the support they enjoyed from the relative masses is going to fade away quickly. They have only themselves to blame. I’m sure over time regardless of where we drilled, the world would have found alternate sources of energy. But in the meantime the economy would not be broken. Think about this coming winter. People in the northeast who heat with oil can expect to pay up to and possibly beyond $4,500 to heat their home this coming winter. (4.24 per gallon of oil x 275 gallons per tank x 4 tanks a year). Those who qualify for heating assistance (very few) can expect to get about $700 from the government.

People understand that bold action needs to be taken now. They are willing to “think green” but within reason. That is why McCain’s proposal to open up American oil fields will be popular. The Pundits will argue that it could take 10 years before any of those fields start producing viable oil supplies. Even if that were true, imagine how much the price of oil would drop world-wide on just the news that America is going to start drilling.

Shale oil is only about 4 years away. Build more refineries. Ban all SUVs that are not hybrids. Mandate VVT technology in all vehicles. This will give a sedan with a 3.4 liter V6 30 miles per gallon on the highway; a 4 cylinder civic gets 35. Bring back coal. Anthracite coal burns with very little smoke, hence very little green house gases. The United States has about 73 billion tons of this coal in reserves. Use it! Nuclear Power; no green house gases, and completely safe. ( Chernobyl: the Russians used a different kind of reactor that increases the nuclear reaction the hotter is gets. Western reactors do not do that. Furthermore it did not have a containment field to keep the radiation from spreading. All in all the worst nuclear accident in our history killed 56 people). Canada has perfected the art of building nuclear reactors. It takes them fours years from start to finish. Not the 10 to 15 years that the greens want you to believe. It only takes that long because of all the red tape that gets in their way.

There are viable real-world solutions that can be done while we are waiting for alternate forms of zero emissions energy. Honda just released its new hydrogen powered car, but at 1 million dollars production cost per car, I don’t think it will hit the mass market anytime soon.

So it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Americans are getting restless, and they are educating themselves on world matters like never before. The drive-by media is going to have a much harder time with its usual spin.

The times….they are changing….

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